Table 4 Estimates for the parameters governing the transmission dynamics of influenza A (H1N1-2009) in a primary school in Madagascar, 2009
Offspring distribution | Depletion of susceptibles | Reproduction number (95% CI ‡) | % Reduction in transmissibility by treatment (95% CI ‡) | % Reduction in transmissibility by contact tracing and chemoprophylaxis (95% CI ‡) | % Reduction in transmissibility by school closure (95% CI ‡) | AIC § |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poisson | Yes | 4.8 (1.8, 9.6) | 14.1 (0, 72.1) | 94.3 (87.6, 97.7) | 31.6 (0, 76.8) | 37.9 |
Poisson | No | 6.0 (2.2,12.2) | 4.4 (0, 68.2) | 93.3 (85.6, 97.3) | 10.0 (0, 69.5) | 35.0 |
Geometric | Yes | 6.6 (1.5, NC) | 26.1 (0, NC) | 94.1 (71.8, 98.7) | 40.6 (0, NC) | 39.7 |
Geometric | No | 7.4 (1.6, NC) | 12.8 (NC, NC) | 92.8 (66.7, 98.4) | 15.1 (0, NC) | 39.1 |
Negative binomial | Yes | 6.6 (2.2, 16.4) | 27.7 (0, 85.5) | 95.4 (87.7, 98.4) | 48.0 (0, 84.8) | 37.6 |
Negative binomial | No | 7.2 (2.5, 17.0) | 13.1 (0, 78.4) | 94.0 (85.6, 97.8) | 22.6 (0, 76.2) | 36.1 |