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Figure 1 | Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling

Figure 1

From: Prospects for developing an accurate diagnostic biomarker panel for low prevalence cancers

Figure 1

Interpretation of test results at various levels of test accuracy for diagnosis of PDAC. Outcomes are shown for a population of 100 million individuals (the current approximate number of individuals over the age of 50 in the United States) and assuming an annual disease prevalence of 4 in 10,000. FN = False-negative test results; FP = false-positive test results; TN = true-negative test results; TP = true-positive test results. Positive predictive value = probability of PDAC in a patient with a positive test result = TP/(TP + FP). Negative predictive value = probability of no PDAC in a patient with a negative test result = TN/(TN + FN). *$2.6 billion annual cost to treat [3]. †$5.5 billion annual cost for a single contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) follow-up screen for each false positive determination (based on 2011 Medicare technical and professional reimbursement rate of $554/CT).

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