Figure 2

Cumulative incidence of pandemic with different timing and lengths of school closure. Panels A, C and E examine the sensitivity of the cumulative incidence (i.e. final size) to different timing of school closure. Length of school closure in these panels is set at 7 days. Similarly, Panels B, D and F explore the sensitivity of the cumulative incidence to different lengths of school closure. Timing of school closure in these panels is set at Day 50. The basic reproduction number is set at 1.4. Panels A and B compare the final size among children to that of the entire population. Panels C and D vary the efficacy of school closure (i.e. the relative reduction in the child-to-child secondary transmissions) from 50% to 90%. No compensatory contact with adults is assumed in these panels. Panels E and F vary the proportion of child contact compensated with young adults, assuming that the compensation occurs for 0 to 50% of intervened within-child contacts. In these panels, the efficacy of school closure is set at 70%.