Developing a realistic sexual network model of chlamydia transmission in Britain

Table 2 Fitted model parameters

Parameter	Best fit or estimated value	Limits of 95% CI	Range (increment)	Source
Behavioural parameters
Proportion that switch from desiring short to long partnerships per year				Fitted to Natsal 2000 [19]
Men	0.04	0.02–0.06	0.0–0.08
Women	0.08	0.06–0.08	0.04–0.12 (0.02)
Initial proportion of 16 year olds desiring short partnerships				Fitted to Natsal 2000 [19]
Men	0.6	0.5–0.7	0.4–0.8
Women	0.5	0.4–0.6	0.3–0.7 (0.1)
Mean duration in days of long partnerships (16 year olds)	900			Based on exploratory fitting to Natsal 2000 [19]
Increase in partnership duration per year, in days	200			Based on exploratory fitting to Natsal 2000 [19]
Infection parameters
Transmission probability per sex act	0.0375	0.035–0.04	0.035–0.05 (0.0025)	Fitted to Natsal 2000 [19] & Adams et al [1]
Proportion seeking treatment				Fitted to Natsal 2000 [19] & Adams et al [1]
Men	0.0	0.04–0.05	0–0.05
Women	0.045	0–0.005	0–0.055 (0.005)
Health care parameters
Proportion of partners notified	0.2	0.1–0.25	0.0–0.5 (0.05)	Fitted to Natsal 2000 [21] & Adams et al [1]

Note: Fitted parameters are presented with the limits of the 95% confidence intervals (meaning that the 95% CI lies within those limits, further refinement was not done). The range tested in the fitting routines and the increment used is also shown.

ISSN: 1742-4682