Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19

Table 1 Reported estimates of the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza during the fall wave (2nd wave) from 1918–19

Location	Serial interval (days)	R ₀	Fitting of a time-independent system with the entire epidemic curve	Reference
San Francisco, USA	6 6	3.5 2.4	Yes No	10
45 cities in the USA	6^†	2.7	No	8
UK (entire England and Wales) ^‡	6	1.6	Yes	7
Geneva, Switzerland	5.7	3.8	Yes	11
Sao Paulo, Brazil	4.6^§	2.7	Yes	12
83 cities in the UK	3.2 and 2.6	1.7–2.0	No	6
45 cities in the USA	2.9	1.7	No	9
Featherston Military Camp, New Zealand ^¶	1.6 1.1 0.9	3.1 1.8 1.3	Yes	13

^†Sensitivity of the R estimates to different assumptions for the serial interval was examined; ^‡Three pandemic waves were simultaneously fitted assuming a large number of susceptible individuals but the statistical details were not given;^§Parameter estimates from previous work were shown [40], but these did not match the assumed parameter values given in the Table; ^¶The epidemic was observed in a community with closed contact (i.e. military camp).

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