Figure 2
Simple extrapolation of the exponential growth of cases. Two exponential fits are compared with the observed number of confirmed cases. Exponential fit 1 employs the data set from 5 May to 17 May during which clusters of cases in a few high schools fuelled the epidemic. Exponential fit 2 draws the best fit to the data from 29 May to 14 July representing the spread of influenza into the wider population. The growth rates for fits 1 and 2 are estimated at 0.37 and 0.08 per day, respectively.