Figure 4

Sensitivity of the probability of epidemic and days taken to observe epidemic to assortativity coefficient during child-first travel restriction. Child-first travel restriction is implemented with a total of 500 imported cases (where there are 10 imported cases per day for 50 days). A. Relative risk of epidemic with the reproduction number 1.6 is examined as a function of travel restriction volume. We examine three assortativity coefficient (0.10, 0.50 and 0.90), but the epidemic risk remains consistently 1. B. Relative risk of epidemic with the reproduction number 1.2. Only when the assortativity coefficient (theta = 0.90), a small reduction in the probability of epidemic is observed. C. The first day at which the probability of epidemic reaches 50% or 95% with the reproduction number 1.6. The day with 50% in the case of assortativity coefficient 0.5 is not distinguishable from horizontal axis. D. The first day at which the probability of epidemic reaches 50% or 95% with the reproduction number 1.2.