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Table 1 Annual transition probabilities for untreated chronic HBV infection

From: Markov modeling in hepatitis B screening and linkage to care

From To Probability References
eAg+ Inactive carrier 7.67% [13,14,15,16,17,18]
Mutant 1.90% [14,15,16]
Compensated cirrhosis 2.96% [14,15,16,17,18]
HCC 0.92% [13,14,15,16,17]
Inactive carrier Mutant 6.16% [15, 17, 18]
sAg- 0.55% [15, 17]
eAg+ 2.54% [17]
Compensated cirrhosis 0.93% [13, 15, 17]
HCC 0.35% [15, 17]
HBV-related death 0.04% [19]
Mutant Inactive carrier 1.60% [14,15,16]
eAg+ 20.05% [20]
Compensated cirrhosis 4.93% [13,14,15,16,17,18]
HCC 0.60% [15, 17]
HBV-related death 0.60% [15]
sAg- Inactive carrier 13.40% [21]
Compensated cirrhosis 0.18% [22, 23]
HCC 0.15% [23, 24]
Compensated cirrhosis Decompensated cirrhosis 5.08% [13,14,15,16,17,26,18, 2527]
HCC 3.02% [13,14,15,16,17,26,18, 2527]
HBV-related death 4.29% [13,14,15,16, 18, 26, 27]
Decompensated cirrhosis HCC 5.94% [13, 15, 17, 18, 27]
HBV-related death 21.46% [13,14,15,16,17,26,18, 2527]
HCC HBV-related death 40.11% [13,14,15,16,17,26,18, 2527]