Table 1 Annual transition probabilities for untreated chronic HBV infection

eAg+

Inactive carrier

7.67%

[13,14,15,16,17,18]

Mutant

1.90%

[14,15,16]

Compensated cirrhosis

2.96%

[14,15,16,17,18]

HCC

0.92%

[13,14,15,16,17]

Inactive carrier

Mutant

6.16%

[15, 17, 18]

sAg-

0.55%

[15, 17]

eAg+

2.54%

[17]

Compensated cirrhosis

0.93%

[13, 15, 17]

HCC

0.35%

[15, 17]

HBV-related death

0.04%

[19]

Mutant

Inactive carrier

1.60%

[14,15,16]

eAg+

20.05%

[20]

Compensated cirrhosis

4.93%

[13,14,15,16,17,18]

HCC

0.60%

[15, 17]

HBV-related death

0.60%

[15]

sAg-

Inactive carrier

13.40%

[21]

Compensated cirrhosis

0.18%

[22, 23]

HCC

0.15%

[23, 24]

Compensated cirrhosis

Decompensated cirrhosis

5.08%

[13,14,15,16,17,26,18, 25–27]

HCC

3.02%

[13,14,15,16,17,26,18, 25–27]

HBV-related death

4.29%

[13,14,15,16, 18, 26, 27]

Decompensated cirrhosis

HCC

5.94%

[13, 15, 17, 18, 27]

HBV-related death

21.46%

[13,14,15,16,17,26,18, 25–27]

HCC

HBV-related death

40.11%

[13,14,15,16,17,26,18, 25–27]