Fig. 4
From: Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing
AUC values for filtered wavelet reddening. We calculated filtered reddening by summing Morlet wavelet coefficients within an interval of frequencies over time of the wavelet spectra. The lower and upper bounds for the interval are shown on the top and left sides of each heat plot, respectively. Heat plots from left to right show AUC values for spectral reddening in non-seasonal, moderately seasonal, and highly seasonal (relative fluctuations = 0, 0.5, and 1) transmission. The star represents the filtered reddening band that achieved the highest AUC statistic for forecasting disease emergence for each level of seasonality. We used the band from 30 to 115 weeks in EWS calculations shown in Figs. (2 and 3)