Fig. 5

Predicted excess of overall demand and scenarios for recruiting additional full-time workers. In both panels, the thick solid line shows the estimated excess of demand in Japan; it is predicted to reach a maximum of over 9 million people by around 2050. That excess is compared with possible compensation scenarios. a Forecast of labor force replenishment by change in rate of full-time homemakers. The percentage represents the proportion of homemakers that could theoretically be recruited for full-time employment. The baseline (status quo) is 0 people. Even with 100% recruitment, the additional force cannot meet growing demand by 2035. b Forecast of labor force replenishment by 10-year delay in retirement age. The baseline (status quo) is that everyone is advised to retire at age 60 years and 0 people. The scenario is when that age is extended to 70 years. Demand exceeds the additional labor force by 2025