Table 3 Estimated number of local transmission cases and epidemic duration of SARS-CoV-2 transmission outside of China
From: Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China
Transmission reduction | 0% | 30% | 60% | ||||||
Period from symptom onset to quarantine (hours) | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h |
Local transmission cases, mean (Lb, Ub) | 4.98, (0, 48) | 192.86, (0, 1824) | 7804.75, (0, 40,180) | 1.44, (0, 12) | 7.27, (0, 54) | 75.13, (0, 714) | 0.49, (0, 4) | 1.54, (0, 9) | 3.49, (0, 21) |
Maximum daily prevalence, mean (Lb, Ub) | 3.99, (1, 25) | 109.69, (1, 1057) | 6013.4, (1, 31,416) | 2.16, (1, 10) | 5.15, (1, 27) | 38.32, (1, 354) | 1.45, (1, 4) | 2.21, (1, 8) | 3.38, (1, 13) |
Epidemic duration (days), mean (Lb, Ub) | 15.87, (0.55, 81.27) | 32.79, (0.77, 100.1) | 46.85, (0.95, 100.01) | 10.92, (0.6, 44.15) | 17.73, (0.73, 94.17) | 31.01, (0.87, 100.17) | 8.49, (0.65, 31.17) | 10.86, (0.66, 40.63) | 13.34, (0.83, 52.91) |
Probability of local transmission cases | |||||||||
0 (%) | 54.9 | 23.7 | 8.5 | 63.85 | 32.95 | 14.05 | 75.85 | 49.15 | 28.05 |
20 or more (%) | 7 | 29.55 | 59.8 | 1 | 8.8 | 30.55 | 0 | 0.45 | 2.9 |
40 or more (%) | 3.2 | 24.35 | 53.65 | 0 | 3.85 | 23.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.35 |