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Table 3 Estimated number of local transmission cases and epidemic duration of SARS-CoV-2 transmission outside of China

From: Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China

Transmission reduction0%30%60%
Period from symptom onset to quarantine (hours)24 h36 h48 h24 h36 h48 h24 h36 h48 h
Local transmission cases, mean (Lb, Ub)4.98, (0, 48)192.86, (0, 1824)7804.75, (0, 40,180)1.44, (0, 12)7.27, (0, 54)75.13, (0, 714)0.49, (0, 4)1.54, (0, 9)3.49, (0, 21)
Maximum daily prevalence, mean (Lb, Ub)3.99, (1, 25)109.69, (1, 1057)6013.4, (1, 31,416)2.16, (1, 10)5.15, (1, 27)38.32, (1, 354)1.45, (1, 4)2.21, (1, 8)3.38, (1, 13)
Epidemic duration (days), mean (Lb, Ub)15.87, (0.55, 81.27)32.79, (0.77, 100.1)46.85, (0.95, 100.01)10.92, (0.6, 44.15)17.73, (0.73, 94.17)31.01, (0.87, 100.17)8.49, (0.65, 31.17)10.86, (0.66, 40.63)13.34, (0.83, 52.91)
Probability of local transmission cases
 0 (%)54.923.78.563.8532.9514.0575.8549.1528.05
 20 or more (%)729.5559.818.830.5500.452.9
 40 or more (%)3.224.3553.6503.8523.2000.35
  1. (Lb, Ub) = (lowerbound, upperbound)