Skip to main content

Table 3 The joint effects of time-varying viral load and orthogonal viral load variables on the CD4 cell counts transition rates Markov model

From: Markov modelling of viral load adjusting for CD4 orthogonal variable and multivariate conditional autoregressive mapping of the HIV immunological outcomes among ART patients in Zimbabwe

Transition

Rate λij

Baseline

Log-linear

βij

Hazard

exp(βij)

Time-varying viral load (VL) levels VLstates, k

 

λij(CD4, 0)

VLstates, k

\( {P}_{VL(k)}^{\ast } \)

VLstates, k

\( {P}_{VL(k)}^{\ast } \)

State 1

State 2

State 3

State 1 to 2 λ12

0.0192

0.1678

0.1739

1.0827

1.1899

0.0182

0.0161

0.02763

State 1 to 3 λ13

0.2856

− 0.3505

−1.8298

0.7044

0.1604

0.7431

0.4755

1.3939

State 1 to 5 λ15

0.0381

0.5612

0.5131

1.7528

1.6704

0.0245

0.0333

0.0535

State 2 to 1 λ21

0.0114

− 0.6837

0.6186

0.5048

0.8563

0.0168

0.0068

0.0088

State 2 to 3 λ23

0.0404

0.4762

1.0791

1.6099

2.9419

0.0239

0.0261

0.0948

State 2 to 4 λ24

0.0086

− 1.0434

− 0.6853

0.3663

0.5039

0.0283

0.0067

0.0126

State 2 to 5 λ25

0.0551

0.5786

−0.0711

1.7836

0.9314

0.0338

0.0729

0.0416

State 3 to 1 λ31

0.0062

− 1.6657

− 0.5138

0.1891

0.5982

0.0235

0.0055

0.0077

State 3 to 2 λ32

0.0036

0.2016

−0.3475

1.2233

0.7064

0.0039

0.0032

0.0131

State 3 to 4 λ34

0.0079

0.1820

0.1034

1.1996

1.1089

0.0057

0.0069

0.0421

State 3 to 5 λ35

0.0195

0.2806

−0.1784

1.3239

0.8366

0.0156

0.0217

0.0305

  1. model information: −2*log-likelihood = 7227.461; Akaike information criterion = 7337.461