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Table 5 The spatial effects (province-level) on the viral load and CD4 cell counts multistate model adjusted for time-varying effects and residual effect of the other prognostic marker with Harare province as a reference category

From: Markov modelling of viral load adjusting for CD4 orthogonal variable and multivariate conditional autoregressive mapping of the HIV immunological outcomes among ART patients in Zimbabwe

Province Hazard Ratio Transition processes for Viral load (VL) and CD4 cell counts multistate models
  State 1 to State 2 State 1 to State 3 State 1 to State 4 State 1 to State 5 State 2 to State 1 State 2 to State 3 State 2 to State 4 State 2 to State 5 State 3 to State 1 State 3 to State 2 State 3 to State 4 State 3 to State 5
P1: VL 0.004 0.405 3.711 0.311 0.327 1.296 26.41 0.089 0.042 0.162 0.047 0.089
CD4 0.912 0.854 ____ 0.794 1.253 0.996 1.001 0.972 1.821 1.181 1.683 1.089
P2: VL 0.056 0.514 0.001 0.109 5.611 1.834 0.021 0.721 1.729 1.981 0.022 0.071
CD4 1.705 0.615 ____ 1.019 0.831 1.595 0.866 0.614 0.899 0.561 0.347 0.151
P3: VL 0.342 0.313 6.096 0.001 0.885 1.033 0.778 0.206 0.301 0.704 0.003 0.007
CD4 0.958 1.861 _____ 0.869 0.945 1.364 0.961 0.775 1.493 1.204 1.469 0.854
P4: VL 3.191 0.208 5.524 2.625 3.933 0.028 3.066 2.082 1.041 2.447 0.043 0.064
CD4 0.709 9.371 _____ 1.664 0.732 6.099 1.019 2.636 2.186 2.279 2.894 2.743
P5: VL 0.002 0.411 2.101 1.671 0.172 0.974 0.347 2.155 0.537 0.925 0.013 1.759
CD4 1.216 1.125 _____ 1.159 0.974 1.058 0.981 0.844 1.358 1.459 1.114 2.543
P6: VL 0.256 1.633 0.019 0.379 9.378 2.479 0.081 3.455 2.525 9.423 0.094 0.138
CD4 0.934 1.263 ____ 0.967 1.747 3.451 0.928 1.046 6.262 5.288 1.241 1.439
P7: VL 1.198 16.68 2.564 0.428 3.145 0.025 2.984 0.568 9.323 0.653 0.225 0.398
CD4 1.744 0.331 _____ 0.712 1.509 0.269 1.519 0.479 0.439 0.851 2.565 0.585
P8: VL 0.013 0.507 6.321 0.834 0.414 1.677 0.701 0.133 0.705 0.924 0.455 0.029
CD4 0.968 1.641 _____ 0.915 0.975 2.006 1.229 1.047 1.711 1.489 1.766 1.231
P9: VL 0.001 0.101 0.005 0.087 0.095 0.816 0.177 0.026 0.036 0.153 0.001 0.095
CD4 0.978 1.249 _____ 0.934 0.907 0.652 0.932 0.953 0.618 0.764 0.654 0.355
  1. Bold-faced values are hazard ratios above 1;
  2. CD4 model information: −2*Log-likelihood = 6932.39; CD4 model AIC = 7196.39; Viral load model information: − 2*log-likelihood = 6429.69; Viral load model AIC = 6716.69;
  3. P1 = Bulawayo, P2 = Manicaland, P3 = Mashonaland Central, P4 = Mashonaland East, P5 = Mashonaland West, P6 = Masvingo, P7 = Matabeleland North, P8 = Matabeleland South, P9 = Midland;
  4. ___indicates no observed transition for that particular multistate model