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Table 5 The spatial effects (province-level) on the viral load and CD4 cell counts multistate model adjusted for time-varying effects and residual effect of the other prognostic marker with Harare province as a reference category

From: Markov modelling of viral load adjusting for CD4 orthogonal variable and multivariate conditional autoregressive mapping of the HIV immunological outcomes among ART patients in Zimbabwe

Province Hazard Ratio

Transition processes for Viral load (VL) and CD4 cell counts multistate models

 

State 1 to State 2

State 1 to State 3

State 1 to State 4

State 1 to State 5

State 2 to State 1

State 2 to State 3

State 2 to State 4

State 2 to State 5

State 3 to State 1

State 3 to State 2

State 3 to State 4

State 3 to State 5

P1: VL

0.004

0.405

3.711

0.311

0.327

1.296

26.41

0.089

0.042

0.162

0.047

0.089

CD4

0.912

0.854

____

0.794

1.253

0.996

1.001

0.972

1.821

1.181

1.683

1.089

P2: VL

0.056

0.514

0.001

0.109

5.611

1.834

0.021

0.721

1.729

1.981

0.022

0.071

CD4

1.705

0.615

____

1.019

0.831

1.595

0.866

0.614

0.899

0.561

0.347

0.151

P3: VL

0.342

0.313

6.096

0.001

0.885

1.033

0.778

0.206

0.301

0.704

0.003

0.007

CD4

0.958

1.861

_____

0.869

0.945

1.364

0.961

0.775

1.493

1.204

1.469

0.854

P4: VL

3.191

0.208

5.524

2.625

3.933

0.028

3.066

2.082

1.041

2.447

0.043

0.064

CD4

0.709

9.371

_____

1.664

0.732

6.099

1.019

2.636

2.186

2.279

2.894

2.743

P5: VL

0.002

0.411

2.101

1.671

0.172

0.974

0.347

2.155

0.537

0.925

0.013

1.759

CD4

1.216

1.125

_____

1.159

0.974

1.058

0.981

0.844

1.358

1.459

1.114

2.543

P6: VL

0.256

1.633

0.019

0.379

9.378

2.479

0.081

3.455

2.525

9.423

0.094

0.138

CD4

0.934

1.263

____

0.967

1.747

3.451

0.928

1.046

6.262

5.288

1.241

1.439

P7: VL

1.198

16.68

2.564

0.428

3.145

0.025

2.984

0.568

9.323

0.653

0.225

0.398

CD4

1.744

0.331

_____

0.712

1.509

0.269

1.519

0.479

0.439

0.851

2.565

0.585

P8: VL

0.013

0.507

6.321

0.834

0.414

1.677

0.701

0.133

0.705

0.924

0.455

0.029

CD4

0.968

1.641

_____

0.915

0.975

2.006

1.229

1.047

1.711

1.489

1.766

1.231

P9: VL

0.001

0.101

0.005

0.087

0.095

0.816

0.177

0.026

0.036

0.153

0.001

0.095

CD4

0.978

1.249

_____

0.934

0.907

0.652

0.932

0.953

0.618

0.764

0.654

0.355

  1. Bold-faced values are hazard ratios above 1;
  2. CD4 model information: −2*Log-likelihood = 6932.39; CD4 model AIC = 7196.39; Viral load model information: − 2*log-likelihood = 6429.69; Viral load model AIC = 6716.69;
  3. P1 = Bulawayo, P2 = Manicaland, P3 = Mashonaland Central, P4 = Mashonaland East, P5 = Mashonaland West, P6 = Masvingo, P7 = Matabeleland North, P8 = Matabeleland South, P9 = Midland;
  4. ___indicates no observed transition for that particular multistate model