Fig. 3

Decomposition of the epidemic curve. A Comparison of predicted and observed weekly incidence. The solid line is the expected weekly incidence of hepatitis A, and the dotted line represents the empirical data. The gray shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval calculated by the parametric bootstrap method. The three vertical lines represent the times at which (i) human-to-human transmission began to increase, (ii) the first countermeasure was implemented, and (iii) the second countermeasure was implemented. B Decomposed temporal distribution. The gray line shows the predicted incidence of environmental transmission, the orange line represents the predicted incidence of human-to-human transmission, and the blue line represents the mixture of these two mechanisms, obtained as a convolution of the mixed incidence and the incubation period