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Table 2 Estimated parameters and its 95% CI, time of outbreak, number of parameters, and AICa for each model assumption

From: Assessing countermeasures during a hepatitis A virus outbreak among men who have sex with men

Model assumption R1b ε1c ε2d Number of parameters AIC
Constant, 17 3.05 (2.63,3.47) 0.60 (0.38,0.82) 0.41 (0.30,0.52) 5 566.0
Sine curve, 17 2.80 (2.32,3.29) 0.72 (0.39,1.04) 0.39 (0.27,0.52) 7 554.6
Second-order trigonometric, 17 2.80 (2.32,3.29) 0.72 (0.39,1.04) 0.39 (0.27,0.52) 9 558.6
Constant, 16-17 3.07 (2.66,3.49) 0.59 (0.37,0.80) 0.42 (0.30,0.53) 5 832.8
Sine curve, 16-17 2.74 (2.24,3.24) 0.76 (0.40,1.12) 0.38 (0.26,0.51) 7 797.8
Second-order trigonometric, 16-17 2.60 (2.07,3.13) 0.87 (0.42,1.33) 0.35 (0.23,0.47) 9 798.3
Constant, 15-17 3.13 (2.71.3.53) 0.57 (0.37,0.77) 0.43 (0.32,0.54) 5 1079,1
Sine curve, 15-17 2.82 (2.35,3.30) 0.72 (0.40,1.03) 0.39 (0.27,0.51) 7 1040.4
Second-order trigonometric, 15-17 2.68 (2.18,3.19) 0.82 (0.42,1.27) 0.36 (0.24,0.47) 9 1038.0
  1. In all models, the estimated starting time of the outbreak was week 35 in 2017. Estimated values of parameters for trigonometric function are available from Supplementary Data 2
  2. aAkaike Information Criteria
  3. breproductin number
  4. ccoefficient of the first measure
  5. dcoefficient of the second measure
  6. eestimated time of invention of the first case of Hepatitis A by MSM