Fig. 3

Results of the number of daily infections and deaths from COVID-19 in Campania, Italy under different scenarios. The red line represents real world data, the black line represents model mean and the grey lines represent individual model runs. All values are filtered with a 10 day moving mean to remove short period noise. The in the scenario with no eruption and a lockdown, model outputs are close to the observed real world data (a and g). Note that the model mean new daily cases appear artificially low due to different peak timings, but that the magnitude of individual runs are comparable to the real world outputs. The mean number of deaths is higher in all scenarios in which Vesuvius erupts (c and i, d and j, e and k, f and l), and higher by more than an order of magnitude where the eruption coincides with the peak in infections (e and k)