Figure 10

(a) Tornado plot of partial rank correlation coefficients, indicating the importance of each parameter's uncertainty in contributing to the variability in the time to eradicate infection. (b) Quadratic response surface (R² = 0.997, indicating extremely strong fit) of the total number of infections over the duration of the epidemic (on log10 scale) as it depends on τ₁ (the incubation period) and λ (the infectivity rate). (c) Pie chart of factor prioritization sensitivity indices; this visual representation clearly shows the dominance of the infectivity rate for this model. Note that τ₁ and τ₂ have been combined under the title of 'other', this is because the sensitivity indices of these parameters are both relatively small in magnitude.