Table 4 Corrected waiting times for a string of five, depending on population size
From: The waiting time problem in a model hominin population
Population size | Average number of instances before fixation | Average waiting time to 1st instance (yrs) | Average waiting time to effective instance (yrs) | Average duration of amplification stage (yrs) | Total average waiting time (yrs) | 95 % confidence intervals for total average waiting time (yrs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1000 | 11.2 | 6.76 × 109 | 1.28 × 1010 | 1.01 × 104 | 1.28 × 1010 | 5.61 × 109 |
5000 | 9.2 | 2.31 × 109 | 3.01 × 109 | 1.40 × 104 | 3.01 × 109 | 6.70 × 108 |
10000 | 9.0 | 1.70 × 109 | 2.31 × 109 | 1.44 × 104 | 2.31 × 109 | 4.98 × 108 |
50000 | 10.5 | 8.54 × 108 | 1.29 × 109 | 2.19 × 104 | 1.29 × 109 | 1.92 × 108 |
100000 | 12.0 | 6.86 × 108 | 9.99 × 108 | 2.34 × 104 | 9.99 × 108 | 1.18 × 108 |
500000 | 11.5 | 3.97 × 108 | 5.50 × 108 | 2.53 × 104 | 5.50 × 108 | 6.15 × 107 |
1 million | 10.0 | 3.30 × 108 | 4.82 × 108 | 2.57 × 104 | 4.82 × 108 | 6.23 × 107 |
10 million | 2.02 × 10 8 (extrapolated) | |||||
1 billion | 3.99 × 10 7 (extrapolated) |