Table 1 The actual number of reported cases per sentinel and prediction results for influenza in Japan from week 1 to week 12 in 2015
Week (t) | Number of reported | U(t) | Prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | cases per sentinel | Â | Â | Â |
1 | 21.46 | – | – | – |
2 | 33.28 | 21.46 | Increase | Correct |
3 | 37 | 33.28 | Increase | Correct |
4 | 39.42 | 37 | Increase | Incorrect |
5 | 29.11 | 39.42 | Decrease | Correct |
6 | 19.03 | 29.11 | Decrease | Correct |
7 | 12.15 | 19.03 | Decrease | Correct |
8 | 8.26 | 12.15 | Decrease | Correct |
9 | 5.88 | 8.26 | Decrease | Correct |
10 | 4.32 | 5.88 | Decrease | Correct |
11 | 3.99 | 4.32 | Decrease | Correct |
12 | 3.85 | – | – | – |
Accuracy | Â | Â | Â | 0.90(=9/10) |