Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey

Table 1 Comparison of model fit and estimated parameters

Contact pattern		R₀^‡ (95% confidence interval)	Number of parameters	AIC^†
Use social contact matrix	Plus age-independent susceptibility	1.34 (1.33, 1.35)	1	457.5
Use social contact matrix	Plus age-dependent susceptibility	1.45 (1.42, 1.49)	15	208.6
Separable mixing		1.40 (1.38, 1.44)	15	208.6
Homogeneous mixing		1.25 (1.24, 1.26)	1	818.9

† Akaike information criterion, calculated as the 2NLL + 2param where NLL and param represent negative log-likelihood and the number of parameters, respectively
‡ Basic reproduction number, R₀, interpreted as the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a fully susceptible population. When the age-dependent heterogeneity is taken into account, R₀ is calculated as the dominant eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix.

ISSN: 1742-4682