Table 1 Number of observed and predicted polio cases using seven models.
Month | Polio Cases | H1 | H2 | Weibull | H3 | Richards | Logistic | Gompertz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 494 | 494 | 494 | 494 | 494 | 494 | 494 | 494 |
1 | 759 | 242.47 | 544.99 | 494.15 | 467.57 | 838.76 | 901.13 | 1112.71 |
2 | 1016 | 278.44 | 720.94 | 505.28 | 452.96 | 1424.12 | 1632.93 | 2224.48 |
3 | 1215 | 526.24 | 1153.82 | 635.10 | 563.29 | 2418.00 | 2924.19 | 4016.77 |
4 | 1619 | 1279.87 | 2218.78 | 1334.67 | 1262.75 | 4105.48 | 5130.07 | 6649.96 |
5 | 2964 | 3506.99 | 4917.77 | 3769.25 | 3730.08 | 6970.11 | 8697.85 | 10223.41 |
6 | 8489 | 9510.12 | 11444.30 | 9859.95 | 9872.33 | 11824.88 | 13987.47 | 14754.76 |
7 | 22377 | 21110.00 | 23267.60 | 20665.19 | 20687.08 | 19913.74 | 20898.37 | 20177.15 |
8 | 32618 | 33011.70 | 34655.40 | 32802.34 | 32777.73 | 31513.43 | 28575.53 | 26352.24 |
9 | 38153 | 39160.25 | 39855.70 | 39775.43 | 39753.72 | 39660.86 | 35708.48 | 33093.26 |
10 | 41462 | 41203.34 | 41247.00 | 41264.73 | 41277.59 | 41382.42 | 41316.48 | 40190.97 |
11 | 42375 | 41763.32 | 41522.90 | 41339.95 | 41358.99 | 41573.16 | 45174.27 | 47437.25 |