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Table 1 Parameters used in the SEIR incidence model*.

From: Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling

Parameter Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Initial proportion of the population susceptible (P is ) 1.0 0.9 0.8
Proportion of infected cases who develop symptoms (P ids ) 0.95 0.81 0.67
Infectivity of asymptomatic/infectivity of symptomatic people (Inf as ) 0.6 0.5 0.4
Proportion of symptomatic cases who present and are diagnosed as infected with influenza (P sp ) 0.95 0.88 0.8
  1. *Based on plausible ranges for pandemic influenza with Scenario 1 being closer to a worse case for impact on health and Scenario 3 being less severe. For example, Scenario 3 assumes 20% of the population may have had immunity from previous influenza pandemics that may have reached New Zealand in the late 19th century – as suggested by Rice [2] and supported by the unusually low mortality rates in the older age groups for this pandemic in New Zealand [2].