Figure 5
From: Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19
Simulated epidemic curve of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19. Comparison of observed epidemic curves of onset (top) and death (bottom) with simulated curves. Expected values of influenza cases and deaths (solid line) mainly overlapped with the observed numbers (dot). Dashed lines indicate the corresponding upper and lower 95% confidence intervals (CI) based on 1000 simulation runs. The 95% CI of cases and deaths were determined by 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated cases and deaths at each time point.