Figure 5

Fit of the model (solid curves) to experimental data (filled squares) collected from patients enrolled in the Ohio SLE Study. (A) Patient 416; (B) Patient 444; (C) Patient 448; (D) Patient 491. Each pair of graphs presents the pro-inflammatory mediators (P) (top panels, solid curve), and the tissue damage (D) (bottom panels, solid curve) dynamics during flare cycle (6 months before and 4 months after the renal flare), against the patient data (filled squares) on uMCP-1 and uP:C, respectively. The horizontal dotted lines mark the baseline values determined at two different time points that were at least 6 months from any flare activity. The solid curves are obtained by numerically solving Eqs. (2) and (3) with the parameters listed in Table 1 and Table 2. Parameter estimations were performed with the curve-fitting tool of Berkeley Madonna [20]. With few exceptions, the model simulations reproduce the experimental measurements around the renal flare. The difficulty in exactly matching the simulations to the experimental data is due to the simplifications assumed when constructing the model; for example P reflects the overall activity of all pro-inflammatory mediators, rather then the uMCP-1 dynamics alone.