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Table 4 Corrected waiting times for a string of five, depending on population size

From: The waiting time problem in a model hominin population

Population size Average number of instances before fixation Average waiting time to 1st instance (yrs) Average waiting time to effective instance (yrs) Average duration of amplification stage (yrs) Total average waiting time (yrs) 95 % confidence intervals for total average waiting time (yrs)
1000 11.2 6.76 × 109 1.28 × 1010 1.01 × 104 1.28 × 1010 5.61 × 109
5000 9.2 2.31 × 109 3.01 × 109 1.40 × 104 3.01 × 109 6.70 × 108
10000 9.0 1.70 × 109 2.31 × 109 1.44 × 104 2.31 × 109 4.98 × 108
50000 10.5 8.54 × 108 1.29 × 109 2.19 × 104 1.29 × 109 1.92 × 108
100000 12.0 6.86 × 108 9.99 × 108 2.34 × 104 9.99 × 108 1.18 × 108
500000 11.5 3.97 × 108 5.50 × 108 2.53 × 104 5.50 × 108 6.15 × 107
1 million 10.0 3.30 × 108 4.82 × 108 2.57 × 104 4.82 × 108 6.23 × 107
10 million      2.02 × 10 8 (extrapolated)  
1 billion      3.99 × 10 7 (extrapolated)  
  1. Each value represents the mean of 25 replicates. The mutation rate (0.001) and beneficial fitness effect (10 %) were held constant. The values in the last two rows (in italics) are extrapolated using the equation based on the line of best fit in Fig. 4